How Will Black Men Vote?

It Depends on What Democrats Do in the Next 20 Days

* Scroll to the bottom to see the new ads we are testing with Black men across the country today.

With less than three weeks until Election Day, Democrats face a crucial challenge: locking down Black (and Latino) voters in battleground states. Two months ago, my team’s data analysis showed that a mere 1% surge in Black turnout could tip key states decisively in Harris' favor. Today, the stakes remain just as high, but the clock is ticking, loudly.

White Flight or Black Boost: 3 Surprising Election Scenarios

This week it seems everyone is suddenly talking about the Black vote. Barack Obama is popping off, pollsters are wringing their hands, and the Harris campaign released a tailored policy agenda to put a finer point on why the Harris-Walz ticket should be the choice for Black men. Not to mention the candidate has clocked strong performances on The Breakfast Club, Roland Martin, and The Shade Room, just in the last few days.

Many writers, organizers, and pollsters have been ringing this alarm all year (it’s why we started this Election Report). And for good reason: no Democratic candidate has won the White House with a majority of white voters since LBJ – in the year Kamala Harris was born. Every successful Democratic candidate since then (and by ‘then’ I really mean the end of the Jim Crow era) has relied on overwhelming support from Black, Latino, and increasingly AAPI voters. That’s how elections are won in America – by Democrats, at least.

Making Every Minute Count

In a lot of ways, it’s hard to picture the Harris campaign having accomplished more in the two months since it kicked off. But time is tight and as VP Harris made clear in her recent appearance on The Shade Room, they are expecting a race up to the last minute for every vote – in particular, those of Black men.

Since 2016, I’ve been thinking about how Democrats can do the work of engaging and mobilizing Black voters in a context of weaponized disinformation from both domestic campaigns and state actors like Russia seeking to influence the outcome of US elections. In 2020, my team founded Win Black to test a new approach to countering cynicism and inspiring Black voters.

Since then, we’ve worked with almost every leader and organization who works to keep voters of color central to our politics to iterate on new engagement models cycle after cycle. As a Black man who has spent my entire career in narrative strategy and political communications, my goal was to get out of the loop of complaining about Democrats’ outreach to Black voters, and deliver more solutions for how, in the complex world of mobilizing hundreds of millions of people, there can be an efficient model for prioritizing Black voters that wins on Election Day and beyond.

In the next 20 days, Democrats needs extreme focus, discipline, and – most importantly – a willingness to rethink the old playbook.

Flood the Entire Zone

In 2020, Win Black mobilized 300 organizers from more than 100 organizations, and ran an all-out war room against misinformation. But convincing donors to invest in Black voter outreach on a massive scale was one of its most important contributions. We helped break the misconception that it was too risky to spend big on Black and Latinx voters – and it paid off. The Harris-Walz campaign is now flowing more and more dollars to these groups.

But individual donors large and small tend to forget about incredible groups like Working Families Party, Care in Action, Higher Heights for America, BlackPAC, Color of Change PAC, the Black Voters Matter Fund and many more who will personally touch millions of Black voters in the weeks before Election Day. Many are still working to fully scale programs fronted by the most influential voices in this campaign – neighbors, local leaders, and homegrown social influencers who can help make a case against Trumpism up and down the ballot from Detroit and Madison to Raleigh and Atlanta.

This is the moment to move money – fast.

Campaigns can still double canvassing operations, boost ad buys, and unleash guerrilla tactics to hit voters where they live, work, and play.

Despite what pundits might say, our research has shown that Black and Latinx men still say they don’t know Kamala Harris. They need a real introduction, and that requires cash. Now is the time to spend it.

Find the ART in messaging to Black men

As folks have been cogently pointing out this week, Black men continue to be one of the most loyal bases in the Democratic Party (much more reliable than white women, for example). But this diverse group also has unique concerns, challenges, and hopes that need to be spoken to specifically. From years of testing messages and content to Black men, I’ve found that we often misunderstand what it takes to connect. I’d boil that down to three key points that Democrats need to keep as a mantra for the next 20 Days: Aspiration, Respect, Trust.

We know that drawing the contrast with the terrifying reality of a second Trump administration is essential. We know that addressing all voters’ top concern around high prices is critical too. But Black men have specific messaging challenges that can be addressed with the right attention and nuance:

• Recognize Black men’s Aspiration to unlock economic freedom: Black men aren’t interested in handouts. They want to win for themselves and their families. Our own ethnographic research shows that Black men spend a disproportionate amount of time online looking for paths to entrepreneurship and financial independence – almost as much as sports or entertainment. Messages should focus on removing the systemic barriers preventing men from creating wealth, and on Black men’s ability to leverage these opportunities into the freedom to control their own futures.

• Show Black male voters Respect: Black men want to feel heard and taken seriously. Our communications must make it clear that their votes are valued and that their concerns are legitimate. At the heart of this are messages that invite the ultimate form of respect: a dialogue. Rather than demanding and expecting votes, we need to have enough respect to have the conversation every day the way the candidate has had it with Roland Martin, Charlamagne tha God, and Justin Carter this week.

• Win back Black men’s Trust: Harris needs to show what Black men’s votes have already achieved to rebuild their faith in Democratic politics. Russian-backed disinformation targeted Black communities with cynicism in 2016 and evolved in 2020 and 2022. It’s still happening, and it’s working. The campaign has to counter this with a clear message: Black men’s votes in 2020 – despite nefarious forces trying to tamp down their power – paved the way for policies that directly benefit them and their families.

We’re Here to Help

In anticipation of this moment, the Election Report partnered up with a leading grassroots political movement a few weeks ago to translate the insights above and others from our bi-weekly tracking poll into a content strategy focused on mobilizing younger Black men in swing states. We know that all Black men are not a monolith. These videos specifically targeted young men who are lower propensity voters, get the majority of their political information online and who are high targets for both misinformation and other influence campaigns.

We are testing the three ads below today. We will share the results with the campaign and other donors who can supercharge the most powerful messages.

We chose 30 second video ads as our best practices for testing, but we’re ready to blow out the winning ideas into print, digital, out of home, and guerrilla style tactics in partnership with folks on the ground all over the country.

Check them out and and let us know what you think in the comments.

We Won’t be Lied To

Leading with an implicit respect for Black men as independent and engaged thinkers, this video introduces VP Harris in the voice of a Black man who directly challenges the misinfo that has driven significant numbers in our poll and others to believe that she does not fight for people like us.

3 Things About Kamala – and Your Pocket

Following an explainer format we’ve used to counter misinformation and mobilize Black voters across multiple cycles, this piece focuses on culture-forward, gif-driven rebuttal to some of the most prominent lies about the candidate’s economic policies. It’s all about how Harris can help, and has already helped, us grab our bag. It’s framed as media literacy with a prominent undertone of the economic freedom message that our polling has shown is effective.

She Turned Black?

Starting with a Trump attack that our research shows most Black men don’t like, this piece is a direct counter to disinformation. But the important thing here is to empower the viewer who already knows better than the lies. Rather than Black men being duped, we’re the ones who see through and correct the record.